The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, is under construction in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of Ethiopia, on the Blue Nile River, located about 40km east of Sudan. The project is owned by Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO).
The primary purpose of the dam is electricity production to relieve Ethiopia's acute energy shortage and for electricity export to neighboring countries.
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What is The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project Details?
Size of
Dam itself, at 145 meters high, and almost two kilometers long. The surface area of the reservoir is 1,874 km2 approximately 724 sq mi almost containing 74 billion cubic metres of water.
Location
The location of the project is Guba, Benishangul-Gumuz Region, coordinates are 11°12′55″N 35°05′35″E.
Benishangul-Gumuz region
Benishangul-Gumuz is a regional state in northwestern Ethiopia bordering Sudan. It was previously known as Region 6. The region's capital is Assosa. Following the adoption of the 1995 constitution, the region was created from the westernmost portion of the Gojjam province (the part north of the Abay River), and the northwestern portion of the Welega Province (the part south of the Abay). The name of the region comes from two peoples – Berta (also called Benishangul) and Gumuz.
Construction Cost
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, has been dogged by controversy ever since construction started on the $4 billion (€3.6 billion) mega project in 2011. Now cost up to $5 billion.
Construction Schedule
Construction started in 2011 and end 2020. Still, some progress going on not fully functional but the construction side looks finished.
Who is Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO)
Ethiopian Electric Power Authority (EELPA) was established in 1955(1948 E.C). It was re-established as Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo) after restructuring in 1996(1989E.C). The corporation was reorganized into two entities, Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) and Ethiopian Electric Utility (EEU) in 2013(2006 E.C).
Ethiopian Electric Power owns and operates the Ethiopian national power grid with all high voltage power transmission lines above 66 kV[1] including all attached electrical substations and almost all power plants within the national power grid (with the exception of some co-generation power plants belonging to the state-owned Ethiopian Sugar Corporation).
What is the Politic Impact?
Politic Impact of Egypt
Egypt heavily depends on the Nile water, as 85% of its water comes from the Blue Nile, which originates in Ethiopia, and less than 7% of its water comes from other resources. Egypt’s total share amounts to 55.5 billion cubic meters per year. In addition, 7.3% of Egypt’s total energy production comes from hydroelectric energy.
Egypt relies on century-old international agreements to claim its share of the Nile River water.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi this week called on Ethiopia to “compromise” over the bitterly contested Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, leading to speculation about a new approach to the Ethiopian project which Egypt fears could deprive it of life-giving water, amid threats from conflict to water resources, infrastructure as seen in Ukraine's Kakhovka dam this week.
Egypt is still applying pressure on the Dam crisis and their dependency on the Nile effect their aggressiveness so if the two country doesn't agree on something this dispute going to get bigger.
Politic Impact of Sudan
Sudan's de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has said that Khartoum and Addis Ababa are "aligned and in agreement" on a controversial Ethiopian dam on the Blue Nile which Egypt views as a threat.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed "confirmed that the Renaissance Dam will not cause any harm to Sudan but will have benefits for it in terms of electricity," the statement said.
A conflict that erupted in Sudan between the military and a paramilitary force (the Rapid Support Forces, RSF) in mid‑April could upend Egypt’s regional strategic interests, in particular with respect to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt was caught up directly in the conflict when dozens of its military personnel were captured during an assault by one of the belligerent factions on an air base in Merowe.
Protracted conflict in Sudan (a high likelihood) raises the risk of GERD talks breaking down entirely, and there is no basis for negotiations without Sudan. If the conflict in Sudan is prolonged, which appears likely, the risk of Egypt becoming militarily more aggressive in the region—directed at Ethiopia—will increase as alternatives to unilateral action over the GERD recede.
Is There a War Possibility?
There is going to be no war foreseen right now. Even if all the parties don't come up with an agreement there are too many factors that prevent war itself like Sudan's political situation and Egypt's aggressive speech but its manner to come up with a solution on the table.
What is the Impact of Ethiopia?
Advantages
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will facilitate flood protection in the lower areas, irrigation, sediment control, and navigation. Their power production cost will be lowered and there are still areas that don't have access to electricity so it will help to levitate the poor regions.
Power Generation
Ethiopian Renaissance dam power and water capabilities. Aimed primarily at generating power, with an expected capacity of 6,000MW.
What is the Ecological Impact
A multidisciplinary study was conducted to investigate the environmental and economic impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Focusing on Egypt, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation from the Blue Nile under the 3, 7, and 10-year GERD reservoir filling scenarios, which are part of an array of scenarios currently under consideration. We then examine the resultant losses in Egypt’s agricultural land and the corresponding impact on selected macroeconomic variables relative to a baseline (no GERD) scenario. For the 3-year filling period, in particular, we estimate projected losses in Egypt’s annual water allocation to be 51.29 ± 2.62%. This translates into annual losses of agricultural land of 52.75 ± 2.44% relative to the baseline, with a resultant decline in food production of 38.47 ± 2.18% and an overall decline in agricultural sector output by 17.51 ± 0.99%. This contributes to a rise in the national unemployment rate of 11.24 ± 1.77 percentage points above the baseline. Moreover, we estimate projected annual losses in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to be 8.02 ± 0.45% relative to the baseline, which translates into an annual loss in real GDP of $26.30 ± 2.81 billion and a loss in the welfare of 12.83 ± 0.73% annually, relative to the baseline. For more Environmental and Economic Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Africa.
Ethiopia Economic Situation
Political instability will remain high in 2023 owing to high levels of insecurity nationwide. A peace deal that was signed between the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in early November represents a major breakthrough after two years of conflict, although the deal is extremely fragile and there is a high risk of renewed conflict. Scarce foreign-exchange reserves, high inflation and instability will weigh on growth in the medium term as the country also faces a looming financial crisis due to falling foreign reserves. Recovering foreign investment and the government's reform agenda will, however, stimulate economic growth in 2024-27.
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